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AFRY Independent Market Report


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Explore the Brazilian electricity market through our latest AIMR

Are you ready to take advantage of the opportunities in the Brazilian electricity market? Now covering Brazil, AFRY's Independent Market Report provides a detailed overview of the structure of the Brazilian electricity sector and our view on the key market and regulatory hot topics for investors.

The Brazilian electricity market is highly dependent on hydro resources, leading to highly volatile scenarios, switching between high price periods resulting from droughts such as 2021 and long-lasting periods of depressed price where the lowest limit of the PLD (set to R$69/MWh for 2023 by ANEEL) is reached, as from September 2022 until now.

Given the expectations of market liberalisation in the medium- and long-term, it is key for investors in Brazilian energy infrastructures to understand and analyse the different parameters that will impact the market and the evolution of projects’ revenues:

  • How will the upcoming renewable and thermal capacities expansion affect electricity prices?
  • What will be the result of reducing the weight of hydro generation in the future Brazilian electricity mix?
  • How will the fast-growing penetration of distributed solar PV impact the development of utility-scale renewable projects?
  • What are the revenue streams that will be accessible for new market participants?

Using a stochastic dynamic programming approach, AFRY models each future year until 2050 under 21 different weather patterns to reach a comprehensive view of possible market evolutions across the next decades. Our analysis shows how volatility decreases along the curve with the gradual addition of thermal and renewable capacity, while average wholesale prices increase.

AFRY is eager to help its clients understand the drivers and possible outcomes of the Brazilian electricity market. For more information, please contact Dorian de Kermadec or Ignacio Cobo.

Read the flyer for our AFRY Independent Market Report for the Brazilian market here.

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