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24 September 2019

Release: updated Belgium report

The Belgian energy sphere is experiencing fundamental change. This updated report gives our latest outlook to 2060 based on our Q3 2019 modelling.

Belgium is a relatively small electricity market in Europe in terms of its annual consumption and peak demand but is well interconnected with surrounding countries, with a baseload generation currently dominated by nuclear and gas.

The first shock to the Belgian electricity mix is expected through the decommissioning of its 5.9GW nuclear fleet by 2025 under the current phase out law. In parallel, a Federal Energy Pact enacted ambitious decarbonisation objectives across energy sectors and could lead to a higher degree of electrification of heat and transport. Renewable electricity generation has been increasing thanks to green certificate schemes. However no significant addition of thermal new build has been observed since early 2010.

In this context, will the new capacity remuneration mechanism planned for 2025 and existing renewable support schemes be sufficient to guarantee a safe and secure transition when nuclear capacity is phased out in the context of decarbonising the economy?

Under ever stronger incentives for a secure, affordable transition to a sustainable energy future, the Belgian electricity market is faced with important challenges and will have to tackle them sooner rather than later.

Therefore, in our latest Belgian report we explore:

  • How will the 2030 targets from the PNEC drive changes in the Belgian electricity mix where resources tend to be limited?
  • What are the measures available to guarantee system adequacy and not jeopardize security of supply when nuclear capacity is decommissioned?
  • What will be the revenue streams accessible for market participants (thermal and renewable electricity generators) for new projects?
  • How is the grid expected to evolve and adapt to increasingly decentralised generation and the anticipated growth in flexible demand through Electric Vehicles?
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