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8 October 2019

Extension of our scenarios to 2060

In a major update to our Q3 2019 modelling, we have incorporated total energy system decarbonisation trajectories across the European electricity, heat and transport sectors to 2060.

Our Central scenario sees an 80% reduction in economy-wide emissions (relative to 1990) across Europe by 2060 (and 90% decarbonisation in the EU ETS).

In the High scenario decarbonisation is rolled-out faster, with a 90% economy-wide reduction and net zero emissions in the EU ETS by 2060.

The Low scenario follows a slower decarbonisation trajectory of 70% economy-wide and 80% EU-ETS emissions reduction by 2060.

These scenarios see a degree of price convergence over the 2040-60 period, during which the price range across are scenarios narrows over time.

We have selected these decarbonisation targets to represent a possible range of outcomes in our scenarios, consistent with the other scenario drivers to achieve a range of price outcomes. However, these targets only represent a small subset of a large number of plausible outcomes and trajectories.

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