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Our dedicated team of over 250 energy experts advise clients across all areas of the energy transition from thermal generation to offshore wind, from trading to customer solutions and from corporate strategy to operational efficiency - we want to be your trusted partner.

The energy world is changing fast - decarbonisation, decentralisation and digitalisation bring both challenges and opportunities for all stakeholders. The pace of change will only increase in the years ahead and - while there are different views on how fast the transition will come – we are convinced it is inevitable.

The transition is complex and stakeholders will face very different issues. Pöyry’s team of energy consultants are at hand, however large or small your need we bring deep insights and help to enable and implement sharper decisions and sustainable success.

Our vision is to be the most recommended advisor for the energy transition.

Country

Report title

Release date

  • Albania

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Albania

    31 March 2020

    Flyer
  • The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the development of interconnectors to its neighbouring countries. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Albanian market.

    Coal, oil and gas price as well as EU-ETS carbon price projections are explained, plant availabilities given, capacity growth in CHP, renewables and thermal plant are reviewed, and demand projections are presented.
  • Austria

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Austria

    24 September 2020

    Flyer
  • The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the market coupling with Germany. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and uses to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Austrian market.

    We review current plans for new capacity in the market and examine the drivers behind different types of new build. This analysis is then compared and contrasted with our price projections to obtain a consistent picture of future market entry.
  • Belgium

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Belgium

    30 September 2020

    Flyer
  • This report provides a comprehensive review of the market rules, key players and historic trends. Wholesale prices are projected until 2040 under three scenarios, which span a range of wholesale electricity price outcomes. In addition the report illustrates the price discount to the annual baseload price that a typical intermittent renewable generator may face in each scenario. The report is one of the leading sources of projections in the market and is used extensively by project developers and financial institutions to assess potential new power projects and plant acquisitions.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Bosnia and Herzegovina

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the delayed market opening and the development of new generation capacity. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Bosnian market.

    We review current plans for new capacity in the market and examine the drivers behind different types of new build. This analysis is then compared and contrasted with our price projections to obtain a consistent picture of future market entry.
  • Bulgaria

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Bulgaria

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • With a liberalising market, anticipated capacity additions and potential for renewable project development, the Bulgarian electricity market is the focus of significant interest for global energy players.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the history of the electricity market liberalisation in Bulgaria. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Bulgarian market.
  • Croatia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Croatia

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • Croatia is facing challenges with relatively high growth rates of electricity demand expected in the long term, while the country's aging power generation capacity needs replacement as it also endeavors to lower its dependency on imported energy sources and further diversify its supply mix.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the increasing integration with the surrounding regional markets.
    Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Croatian market.
  • Cyprus

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Cyprus

    Flyer
  • This AFRY Independent Market Report presents our in-depth analysis of wholesale electricity prices for the Cypriot market. The projections cover the period 2019-2040 and are based on our detailed modelling of the fundamentals of supply and demand in the Republic of Cyprus. We have combined input assumptions to create three internally consistent market scenarios (High, Central and Low) for our price projections.

    If you wish for details on the Cyrpus market report, please contact Asimina Karakyriakou (asimina.karakyriakou@afry.com).
  • Czech Republic

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for the Czech Republic

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • AFRY Management Consulting has released its latest report on the Czech Republic's wholesale electricity market. Together with the Slovakian market, the Czech power price is below the average within the "4M coupling".

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040. The Czech Republic is a transit country for electricity, mainly receiving flows from Germany and transmitting further to Austria. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Czech market.
  • France

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for France

    23 September 2020

    Flyer
  • Relied upon and trusted by utilities, banks, funds and independent players, the AFRY Independent Market Report for France:
    • Presents our price projections out to 2040; underpinned by the most powerful market modelling available, AFRY’s BID3 model, it properly reflects the highly interconnected French market and the evolution in its capacity mix and demand dynamics.
    • Identifies and provides understanding on the current market and regulatory issues relevant for those with existing French power (thermal and/ or renewable) assets or considering developing / acquiring new ones.
    • Provides illustrations of the typical discounts to the market price (capture rates) for intermittent generators in the French market.
  • Great Britain

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Great Britain

    25 September 2020

    Flyer
  • Relied upon and trusted by utilities, banks, developers and investors, the AFRY Independent Market Report for Great Britain:
    • Presents our baseload price projections out to 2040, underpinned by AFRY’s unparalleled electricity market model – BID3.
    • Reflects the increasingly complex and interconnected market in Great Britain – assessing the evolution of regulation, commodity markets, generation capacity and demand under three internally consistent scenarios.
    • Describes in detail the current market and regulatory issues relevant for those owning, developing or acquiring assets in GB.
    • Explores the future prospects for different generating technologies in the GB market.
  • United Kingdom

    The Value of Renewables Obligation supported electricity in the UK

    29 June 2020

    Flyer
  • This AFRY Independent Market Report provides a complete guide to the GB wholesale electricity market, the Renewables Obligation (RO), and the wider policy environment affecting renewable electricity generation.
    This edition provides AFRY’s latest projections for each value element available to the UK’s renewable generators:
    • GB wholesale electricity prices, underpinned by AFRY’s powerful BID3 market model;
    • Renewable Obligation Certificate (ROC) prices; and
    • indicative Embedded Benefit projections.
    Alongside our report we provide data sets for our power and ROC price projections.
  • Georgia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Georgia

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • Georgia is a developing market challenged with domestic electricity demand growth and a large neighbouring power system in need of electricity imports, Turkey. Recent new hydro and thermoelectric capacity build in Georgia is creating new opportunities on this market.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the interaction with the Turkish electricity market. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Georgian market.
  • Germany

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Germany

    23 September 2020

    Flyer
  • In our latest German report we explore:
    • How will the closure of nuclear and coal transform the German electricity mix and how will it impact electricity prices?
    • Is the current legislated renewables support and the measures stated in the ‘Climate Protection Program 2030’ sufficient to achieve the new 2030 renewables target?
    • How are the latest renewable tender results to interpret and what is the outlook for new projects?
    • What potential revenue sources are accessible to thermal and renewable electricity generators for new projects?
    • What are the latest market design changes in order to support the integration of renewables?
  • Greece

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Greece

    7 May 2020

    Flyer
  • What are the critical imminent changes in the Greek market? What is the outlook for renewables and conventional thermal generation? What is the future level of electricity prices and capacity payments?

    Our price projections are accompanied by a comprehensive review of the current market design as well as the structure and physical characteristics of the Greek power market. We outline the most critical regulatory issues the market is currently facing and provide our view on the most likely development of the Greek wholesale electricity market. The most topical regulatory issues are:
    • the ‘New Deal’ for renewables signalling changes in renewable support;
    • ownership unbundling of the Greek TSO, ADMIE, from PPC;
    • privatisation of part of PPC;
    • removal of the Cost Recovery Mechanism;
    • changes in the energy trading arrangements to ensure compliance with the EU Target Model;
    • potential changes in the Capacity Remuneration Mechanism; and
    • introduction of forward capacity auctions.

    In addition, this report provides an overview of the gas market, the renewables support framework, background on the key stakeholders in the Greek market and historical trends of prices and physical characteristics.
  • Hungary

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Hungary

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • Through the formation of HUPX, Hungary plays a key role for the "4M Market Coupling" and the transmission of electricity withing the SEE/CEE region. However, it's expensive generation mix leaves the country highly dependent on imports.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the market coupling with Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Romania. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Hungarian market.
  • Ireland

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for the Irish Single Electricity Market

    7 October 2020

    Flyer
  • In our Independent Market Report on the Irish Market we provide a full description of the structure and historical trends of the Irish Market and we assess the issues that the market will face in the coming years.
    The report provides time-weighted wholesale energy and capacity price projections up to 2040 under our three internally consistent core scenarios – High, Central and Low.

    We examine the effect of differences in key drivers, such as:
    • electricity demand;
    • fuel prices;
    • carbon prices;
    • evolution of capacity mix; and
    • the future level of capacity payments.

    The report also describes our projected evolution in installed capacity and the potential uptake of further renewable and battery development in the Irish Market.
  • Italy

    Wholsesale Electricity Market Price Projections for Italy

    28 September 2020

    Flyer
  • The Italian electricity and renewables market report is designed to provide a guide to potential investments and an essential risk management tool for project developers, financiers and utilities. It is built on AFRY’s long-standing modeling expertise and in-depth knowledge of European energy markets.
    We use our European electricity model to examine the effect of differences in key drivers, such as:
    • fuel and carbon prices derived from our suite of models;
    • construction of new generationcapacity and plant retirements;
    • electricity demand; and
    • development of low carbon technologies, such as renewables and CCS.
  • Kosovo

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Kosovo

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • AFRY Management Consulting has released its latest report on the Kosovar electricity market. At the heart of the West-Balkan countries, the Kosovo still suffers from political tensions. Its old generation fleet is virtually based on coal-fired plants which already approach the end of the technical lifetime.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the country's need to meet rising demand while fulfilling EU's emission criteria. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Kosovar market.
  • Macedonia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Macedonia

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • AFRY Management Consulting has released its latest report on the electricity market on the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia. As part of the Energy Community, the country endeavours to implement EU regulation regarding liberalisation as well as RES targets.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as energy market regulation, which needs to be adapted according to EU Directives as well as future renewables penetration. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Macedonian market.
  • Montenegro

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Montenegro

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • South Eastern Europe is a developing region facing challenges with relatively high growth rates of electricity demand expected in the long term, new interconnections to Italy and within the region, while the region's aging power generation capacity needs replacement.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the increasing integration with the surrounding regional markets. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Montenegrin market.
  • Netherlands

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for the Netherlands

    25 September 2020

    Flyer
  • Relied upon and trusted by utilities, banks, funds and independent players, the AFRY Independent Market Report for the Netherlands:
    • presents our price projections out to 2040; underpinned by the most powerful market modelling available, AFRY’s BID3 model, it properly reflects the highly interconnected Dutch market and the evolution in its capacity mix and demand dynamics
    • identifies and provides understanding on the current market and regulatory issues relevant for those with existing Dutch power (thermal and/or renewable) assets or considering developing / acquiring new ones
    • provide illustrations of the typical discounts to the market price (capture rates) for intermittent generators in the Dutch market
  • Poland

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Poland

    30 September 2020

    Flyer
  • AFRY Management Consulting has been active for numerous years in the Polish market, across the gas and electricity sectors. We are one of the leading sources of market expertise and longterm price projections, used extensively by major energy groups, project developers and financial institutions to assess the economics of their current and prospective investments.

    The AFRY Independent Market Report for Poland contains:
    • a comprehensive review of the Polish market rules, key players and historic trends;
    • detailed discussions on the current market and regulatory issues for thermal and renewable generators;
    • electricity demand, fuel and CO2 price projections;
    • long-term wholesale price projections out to 2040 under three scenarios, which span a range of price outcomes;
    • the progression of clean spark and dark spreads;
    • assessment of the price impact of the Capacity Market alongside with projections of clearing prices for future capacity auctions;
    • outlooks of Green Certificate (GC) prices out to 2031 based on three regulatory scenarios; and
    • an additional ‘sensitivity’ scenario, illustrating the likely impact on the Polish electricity (and capacity market) prices of the Dec-18 EU Decision on the Clean Energy Package, which phases out capacity market payments to existing coal/lignite units from 2025.
  • Portugal

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Portugal

    22 September 2020

    Flyer
  • Relied upon and trusted by utilities, banks, funds and Independent players, the AFRY Independent Market Report for Portugal:
    • Presents our price projections out to 2040: underpinned by the most powerful market modelling available, AFRY´s BID3 model, it properly reflects the deployment of renewables in Portugal and the evolution in its capacity mix and demand dynamics in 3 different scenarios – High, Central and Low.
    • Examines the effect of different drivers in the Portuguese electricity market, such as: electricity demand, fuel and gas prices (derived from our models), government policies and new build capacity.
    • Provides a detailed explanation of the market background and the Portuguese electricity market operation.
    • Identifies and provides understanding on the current market and regulatory issues relevant for those with Portuguese power (thermal or renewable) assets or considering developing or acquiring new ones.
  • Romania

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Romania

    9 October 2020

    Flyer
  • The Romanian electricity market continues to undergo significant changes in market liberalisation, carbon emissions and renewable electricity development, while further considerable investment is required to fulfill the key goals of the country's long-term energy strategy.

    The report provides wholesale price projections out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as further integration with the surrounding markets in the CEE/SEE regions. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Romanian market.
  • Serbia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Serbia

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • AFRY Management Consulting has released its latest report on the Serbian electricity market. Through its unbundling activities, the country has successfully implemented the Third Energy Package and shows ambitions to join the EU. However, with regards to RES share, Serbia still lags behind.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040. Given that Serbia is well interconnected to neighbouring countries, its generation and prices play a key role to the whole region. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Serbian market.
  • Slovakia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Slovakia

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • Since Slovakia has become a part of the "4M Market Coupling", the country plays a key role in the transmission of electricity within the SEE/CEE region, while with major development of its generation capacity (new nuclear in particular) and potentially additional interconnection, the cross-border transmission profile is likely to change.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key developments such as the market coupling with Hungary, the Czech Republic and Romania. Furthermore, our modelling is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Slovakian market.
  • Slovenia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Slovenia

    8 May 2020

    Flyer
  • Slovenia is an important transit country of electricity. Situated next to the well-supplied EEX block and power-import-dependent Italy, as well as the neighbouring hydro-dependent SEE region, Slovenia will play a key role in the future of CEE and SEE electricity markets.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as the increasing integration of the surrounding markets. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Slovenian market.
  • Spain

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Spain

    28 September 2020

    Flyer
  • Relied upon and trusted by utilities, banks, funds and independent players, the AFRY Independent Market Report for Spain:
    • Presents our price projections out to 2040; underpinned by the most powerful market modelling available, AFRY´s BID3 model, it properly reflects the deployment of renewables in Spain and the evolution in its capacity mix, interconnections and demand dynamics in different scenarios.
    • Examines the effect of different drivers in the electricity market such as: electricity demand, fuel and gas prices (derived from our models), government policies and new build capacity.
    • Provides a detailed explanation of the market background and the electricity market operation.
    • Identifies and provides understanding on the current market and regulatory issues relevant for those with Spanish power (thermal or renewable) assets or considering developing or acquiring new ones.
  • Spain

    Wholesale Gas Price Projections for Spain

  • AFRY Management Consulting uses its gas market model, Pegasus, to project wholesale gas prices and cross-border flows between 2011 and 2035. Alongside background and analysis of the Spanish market, this report presents the results of our detailed Spanish market projections.

    If you wish for details on the Spanish gas report, please contact Julia Dupuy (julia.dupuy@afry.com) or Dorian de Kermadec (dorian.dekermadec@afry.com).
  • Switzerland

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Switzerland

    31 August 2020

    Flyer
  • Relied upon and trusted by utilities, banks, funds and independent players, the AFRY Independent Market Report for Switzerland:
    • presents our price projections out to 2060; underpinned by the most powerful market modelling available, AFRY’s BID3 model, it properly reflects the highly interconnected Swiss market and the evolution in its capacity mix and demand dynamics;
    • identifies and provides understanding on the current market and regulatory issues relevant for players owning existing Swiss power assets (thermal and/or renewable) or considering developing / acquiring new ones;
    • provide illustrations of the typical discounts to the market price (capture rates) for intermittent generators in the Swiss market.
  • Ukraine

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Ukraine

    Flyer
  • By enacting a new market law in June 2017, Ukraine is making progress in their liberalisation efforts to comply with the Third Energy Package. Given the some of Ukraine's neighbouring EU power markets have undertaken electricity reforms in recent years, it seems that the pressure on the country to deregulate its power industry will get even stronger.

    The report provides wholesale price projections and its fundamental drivers out to 2040 and investigates key issues such as growing power demand and increased used of renewable energy sources. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity price scenarios for the Ukrainian market.
  • Ukraine

    Wholesale Gas Price Projections for Ukraine

  • AFRY Management Consulting uses its gas market model, Pegasus, to project wholesale gas prices and cross-border flows between 2011 and 2035. Alongside background and analysis of the Ukrainian market, this report presents the results of our detailed Ukrainian market projections.

    If you wish for details on the Ukraine gas report, please contact Philip Gueorguiev (philip.gueorguiev@afry.com).
  • Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for the Baltic countries

    1 October 2020

    Flyer
  • Relied upon and trusted by utilities, banks, funds and independent players, the AFRY Independent Market Reports for the Baltic countries:
    •Covers Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
    •Presents our price projections out to 2060 for each Baltic country; underpinned by the most powerful market modelling available, AFRY’s BID3 model. BID3 properly reflects the thermal-driven Baltic markets and the evolution in its capacity mix, transmission capacity and demand dynamics.
    •Identifies and provides understanding on the current market and regulatory issues relevant for those with existing Baltic power assets or considering developing/acquiring new ones.
  • Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for the Nordic countries

    2 October 2020

    Flyer
  • Relied upon and trusted by utilities, banks, funds and independent players, the AFRY Independent Market Reports for the Nordic power market:
    • Covers Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the elcertificate market.
    • Presents our price projections out to 2060 for each Nordic country; underpinned by the most powerful market modelling available, AFRY's BID3 model. BID3 reflects accurately the hydro-driven Nordic markets and the evolution in its capacity mix and demand dynamics.
    • Identifies and provides understanding on the current market and regulatory issues relevant for those with existing Nordic power assets (thermal and/or renewable) or considering developing/acquiring new ones.
  • Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for South East Europe

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • South Eastern Europe is a developing region facing challenges with relatively high growth rates of electricity demand expected in the long term, while the region's aging power generation capacity needs replacement or, at least, partial refurbishment in the coming years.

    The report covers a multi-country region comprising of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina , Croatia, FYROM, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo and Slovenia. Furthermore, our modelling methodology is described and used to generate the electricity prices scenarios and investigate links among this region, the rest of Europe and Turkey.
  • Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Silk Road Countries

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • Eurasia is a diverse region shaped in part by Soviet heritage. The region is set to see significant structural changes in the electricity market, with strong growth in electricity demand and members of the Eurasian Economic Union discussing the creation of a common electricity market. Meanwhile, new opportunities are arising as China's increasingly international energy firms take a growing stake in this key Belt and Road initiative region.

    We are pleased to offer screening reports to assist our clients in the pre-project, pre-FID phase. Our research provides high-level due diligence screening, with provisional benchmarking in markets of interest in the Middle East, through the New Silk Road countries and China.

    AFRY's screening reports offer key market indicators and concise commentary, including:
    • Market size (annual and peak electricity demand)
    • Market growth rate
    • Interconnections and the import/export balance
    • Key technical features of main power plants
    • Recent electricity prices
    • Generating capacity mix
    • CO2 regime
    • Other factors considered relevant by AFRY.
  • Western Europe & Global Gas Supply Study

    Flyer
  • Relied upon and trusted by utilities, banks, funds and independent players, the AFRY Independent Market Report for Western Europe & Global Gas Supply:
    • Presents gas price projections for European hubs out to 2040; underpinned by AFRY’s Pegasus3 gas market model, reflecting the influence of the global LNG market and changing demand patterns.
    • Projects the decline in indigenous gas supplies and the new sources of gas available to supply Europe, as well as future storage capacity and sources of flexibility.
    • Examines the global LNG market, identifying key growth markets and the overall supply-demand balance, and how this will impact upon Europe in years to come.
  • Electricity Market Study for Central Eastern Europe

    24 September 2020

    Flyer
  • Central Eastern Europe is frequently serveing as a transit corridor for electricity flows. Will this trend continue and, in particular, will new generation capacity maintain sufficient system supply margins, as more power markets are expected to be couples in the region and across its borders?

    The report looks at three underlying scenarios:
    • a High scenario, examining the effect of high fuel and carbon prices coupled with high demand and capacity growth that put an upwards pressure on prices
    • a Central scenario, where a less aggressive growth in demand, combined with our central projections for fuel prices, result in a central price for electricity
    • a Low scenario, where low demand, capacity growth and low fuel prices put a downwards pressure on prices
  • United Arab Emirates

    Projections of the future power and water system in Abu Dhabi

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • We provide a standard repot for the Abu Dhabi power and water system. The report provides a comprehensive review of the sector regulations, key players and historic trends. We examine the key issues that the market will face in the future. The report also provides a quantitative analysis of the future evolution of the system to 2040 under three scenarios. The scenarios (High, Central and Low) are designed to test the boundaries of future fuel prices and economic growth.

    Outputs presented include:
    • marginal system price;
    • bulk supply tariff;
    • average system price;
    • generation mix; and
    • new capacity additions.

    The report can be used as a starting point to assess a variety of issues, which include:
    • potential power and water capacity requirements;
    • future evolution of the Bulk Supply Tariff;
    • revenues that may be achievable in the period after a generator’s initial PPA term;
    • future gas consumption; and
    • future plant operating patterns and potenial maintenance requirements.
  • Azerbaijan

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Azerbaijan

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • While focussing on unleashing the state’s great energy potential, Azerbaijan is preparing for market liberalisation.
  • Bangladesh

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Bangladesh

  • Bangladesh has a annual consumption of around 60 TWh, with a 1% renewable penetration mostly coming from hydroelectricity. The report provides a comprehensive review of the market rules, key players and historic trends. It is a leading source of commodities price projections in the market.

    If you wish for details on the Bangladesh market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • Cambodia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Cambodia

  • The Electricity Authority of Cambodia (EAC) is the autonomous government agency responsible for both licencing electricity power suppplers and managing customer activites including managing customer contracts. The report provides a comprehensive review of the market rules, key players and historic trends. It is a leading source of commodities price projections in the market.

    If you wish for details on the Cambodian market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • Canada

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Alberta

  • In 1996, the Alberta Government passed the Electricity Utilities Act (1996) which created Power Pool of Alberta as a wholesale market clearing entity. The report provides a comprehensive review of the market rules, key players and historic trends. It is a leading source of commodities price projections in the market.

    If you wish for details on the Alberta market report, please contact Sarah Elias (sarah.elias@afry.com) or Robert Buchner (robert.buchner@afry.com).
  • Canada

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for New Brunswick

  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for New Brunswick.

    If you wish for details on the New Brunswick market report, please contact Stuart Murray (stuart.murray@afry.com).
  • Canada

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Ontario

  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for Ontario.

    If you wish for details on the Ontario market report, please contact Susannah Grice (susannah.grice@afry.com).
  • Chile

    Wholsesale Electricity Price Projections for Chile

    2 July 2020

    Flyer
  • The report provides a comprehensive review of the market rules, key players and historic trends. It is a leading source of commodities price projections in the market and can be used in complement to our valuation experience in Chile to assess potential new or existing power projects and plant acquisitions.

    Over many years we have developed a suite of advanced fundamental models allowing us to model world supply and demand of commodities, their interactions, and to investigate the market effects of high levels of intermittent generation.
  • China

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for China

    Flyer
  • China’s electricity system has fuelled the largest single economic expansion the world has seen. In doing so it has grown to be the world’s largest electricity sector and one characterised by a heavily coal-dominated supply structure, meeting primarily baseload industrial demand.

    As planning gets underway to set the tone for the next half decade under the milestone 14th Five Year Plan, market participants across the sector are facing a set of new realities. Securing revenues in China’s 30-odd diverse and distinct provincial electricity markets will increasingly be driven by supply-demand dynamics and characterised by falling or no subsidies.
  • Colombia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Colombia

    3 January 2020

    Flyer
  • In 2019, as Colombia is committed to organising its first renewable auctions, AFRY Management Consulting enhances its commercial offer with the release of a new reference source for long-term projections for the Colombian wholesale electricity market.

    Over recent years we have worked with more than 30 clients in Latin America and we have built a strong reputation in this area. We have invested in the development of a suite of advanced models in order to investigate the market effects of different weather patterns.
  • Egypt

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Egypt

    3 January 2020

    Flyer
  • AFRY Management Consulting is pleased to release its latest report on Egypt wholesale electricity market, including insights on the approaching market liberalization, demand growth and investments required to support the expected capacity increase.

    The Report offers a comprehensive review of the history of the electricity market in Egypt, and describes how it relates to the current market structure.

    The Egyptian national electricity system is still dominated by an incumbent operator, the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC), that manages generation, transmission and distribution through its subsidiaries.

    Market liberalisation is ongoing; with the “New electricity law”, designed to strengthen sector’s commercial orientation and to boost the liberalization process, awaiting issuance.
  • Indonesia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Indonesia

    Flyer
  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for Indonesia.

    If you wish for details on the Indonesian market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • Iran

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Iran

  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for Iran.

    If you wish for details on the Iranian market report, please contact Brendan Cronin (brendan.cronin@afry.com).
  • Japan

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Japan

    Flyer
  • Japan’s electricity sector is large, and in many ways, stable; but it is also in the process of significant transition. Historically, Japan’s regional utility companies operated regionally self-sufficient power grids. This led to oversupply situations right up until the 2011 East Japan Earthquake, which prompted an ongoing shift in diversifying energy mix from nuclear, as well as a wider structural change to further integrate the power grids.

    If you wish for details on the Japanese market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.heling@afry.com).
  • Jordan

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Jordan

  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for Jordan.

    If you wish for details on the Jordan market report, please contact Brendan Cronin (brendan.cronin@afry.com).
  • Kazakhstan

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Kazakhstan

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  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for Kazakhstan.

    If you wish for details on the Kazakhstan market report, please contact Brendan Cronin (brendan.cronin@afry.com).
  • Laos

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Laos

  • Loas currently exports approximately two-thirds of its hydropower, with ongoing plans for 50+ new hydropower plants for electricity export. The report provides a comprehensive review of the market rules, key players and historic trends. It is a leading source of commodities price projections in the market.

    If you wish for details on the Laos market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • Malaysia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Malaysia

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  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for Malaysia.

    If you wish for details on the Malaysian market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • Mexico

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Mexico

    2 July 2020

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  • Mexico is transitioning from an electricity market based on liquid fuels to a market driven by gas-fired and clean energy generation. Over 4GW of new efficient CCGTs are currently under construction, which will cause most oil-based generators to move out of merit and completely change the pricing dynamics of the market.

    Mexico continues to see a rapid growth of clean energy technologies, with over 7GW of utility-scale projects being developed across the country by 2020 via auctions, private PPAs and merchant routes to market. Distributed generation is gaining the attention it deserves. It is now becoming imperative to understand the effect that this new generation will have on the market and how the market will behave with large penetrations of solar and wind.
  • Morocco

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Morocco

  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for Morocco.

    If you wish for details on the Moroccan market report, please contact Riccardo Siliprandi (riccardo.siliprandi@afry.com).
  • Myanmar

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Myanmar

  • Myanmar's electricity system is dominated by hydroelectricity, making up over 70% of the generation. This is supported by gas and other fossil fuels. The report provides a comprehensive review of the market rules, key players and historic trends. It is a leading source of commodities price projections in the market.

    If you wish for details on the Myanmar market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • Oman

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Oman

    2 July 2020

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  • The AFRY Independent Market Report for Oman is the definitive source for long-term Omani wholesale electricity price projections.

    In line with public guidance from OPWP, we model two market prices for each hour:
    • System Marginal Price: reflects the shortrun marginal cost of the marginal plant.
    • Scarcity Price: reflects the system margin.

    We project wholesale market prices and plant operation for three core scenarios with different assumptions for fuel prices and demand growth (Central, High, and Low). We also run a Central Sensitivity which examines the impact of tighter margins on market prices.
  • Panama

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Panama

    2 July 2020

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  • Electricity generation in Panama relies mainly on hydro production and historically on oil products. However, in recent years new technologies developed such as CCGT, coal and renewable plants. This is changing drastically the paradigm of the Panamanian electricity market as well as the level of prices this market can expect to observe in the future.

    Panama is a market with a significant electricity and peak demand growth, in line with strong GDP growth. Although the market is currently well supplied, we expect that this demand growth will bring new capacity in the system. Also we expect current high electricity market prices will attract a growing renewable capacity.
  • Peru

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Peru

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  • After privatisation initiated in 1992, Peru has had large improvements in access to electricity and efficiency of service provision. The current capacity is divided by thermal and hydroelectric sources, however there is an untapped potential of wind and solar energy. The report provides a comprehensive review of the market rules, key players and historic trends. It is a leading source of commodities price projections in the market.

    If you wish for details on the Peruvian market report, please contact Javier Revuelta (javier.revuelta@afry.com).
  • Philippines

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for the Philippines

    2 July 2020

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  • AFRY presents its comprehensive market report and long-term projections for the Philippines wholesale electricity market.

    The Philippines Market Report provides a comprehensive review of the market, key players and historic trends. The report provides an essential insight into the development of the Philippines electricity market and contains wholesale electricity price projections out to 2035. The wholesale price projections are based on our detailed modelling of fundamental supply and demand dynamics in the regions of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, and are supported by our latest projections of commodity prices.
  • Qatar

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Qatar

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  • The production of electricity and water in Qatar is dominated by thermal desalination plants, which meet the vast majority of the country’s power and water consumption. The production assets in Qatar are privately-owned IWPPs and IPPs, however the state retains an equity stake in all thermal plants via Qatar Water and Electricity Company and Qatar Petroleum.

    In 2020 Qatar procured its first renewable IPP, the 800MW Al Kharsaah Solar PV project, developed by state-owned Siraj Power alongside Marubeni and Total. The Al Kharsaah plant is likely to be first of several large PV IPPs, as Qatar targets 20% of generation from renewable sources by 2030.
  • Saudi Arabia

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Saudi Arabia

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  • Saudi Arabia’s electricity sector is dominated by state-owned, vertically-integrated utility Saudi Electricity Company (SEC). SEC generates most of country’s electricity from its fleet of gas and oil-fired power plants. SEC also purchases power from a small number of independent power producers.

    As part of Vision 2030, the government launched the National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP), targeting 58.7GW of renewables by 2030. The 300MW Sakaka PV IPP, the country’s first renewable IPP, achieved commercial operation at the end of 2019. The 400MW Dumat Al Jandal wind IPP is under construction. Several other renewable IPP tenders are in progress.
  • Singapore

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Singapore

  • Singapore is a net importer of electricity, with no domestic energy production until 2012. The report provides a comprehensive review of the market rules, key players and historic trends. It is a leading source of commodities price projections in the market.

    If you wish for details on the Singaporean market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • South Africa

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for South Africa

    3 January 2020

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  • The AFRY Independent Market Report for South Africa is the definitive source for long-term projections and for South Africa's power system.

    Future developments in the South African power system include:
    • Uncertainty about demand growth: Following the economic crisis electricity demand growth has been weak. Contributing factors are supply shortages, rising tariffs and lower energy intensity.
    • Decommissioning of old coal plants: The average age of South Africa’s coal fleet is 39 years, with 14.5GW being 40 years or older in 2019. New capacity will need to be commissioned over the next decade in order to replace decommissioning coal plant. Poor plant performance reduces reliability of supply in the meantime.
    • Emergence of renewable electricity: In 2018, less than 4% of the electricity generated in South Africa came from renewable sources. However, the country has excellent wind and solar potential (up to 1,000MW of PV and 1,600MW of wind per year could be procured), and the government offers fixed-tariff PPAs to developers.
    • Carbon tax: The South African government has set ambitious targets to reduce CO2 emissions. It pans to introduce a carbon tax from 2019, which, depending on the tax regime, will be between $0.5/tCO2 and $9/tCO2.

    Based on these developments, we have created our Central scenario projection for the future generation mix in South Africa.
  • South Korea

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for South Korea

    2 July 2020

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  • The South Korean electricity sector is undergoing multi-faceted evolution. South Korea is a large energy-intensive electricity market characterised by large baseload demand served almost exclusively by coal, natural gas and nuclear plants. Local and international developments have prompted the government to change its views on the electricity market. The government has set the direction on where it wants the electricity market to go with ‘Energy Transition RE3020’, aiming to have 20% of generation to come from new and renewable energy sources by 2030. These changes will have significant implications for the South Korean electricity sector.
  • Taiwan

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Taiwan

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  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for Taiwan.

    If you wish for details on the Taiwanese market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • Thailand

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Thailand

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  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for Thailand.

    If you wish for details on the Thai market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • Turkey

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Turkey

    3 January 2020

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  • With its liberalising market and rapid demand growth, Turkey provides a huge potential for new investment opportunities - AFRY Management Consulting is pleased to release reports and price projections on the Turkish wholesale electricity market.

    Recent market events are examined in the context of the current market conditions and we also examine the future outlook. The government’s renewables and nuclear strategy and implications of a possible carbon market are discussed along with other applicable strategy documents.

    The day-ahead market, intra-day market and real-time balancing mechanisms are explained in detail and the market rules are outlined in a comprehensive, full Annex.

    The report describes how we simulate wholesale prices in the market and how we project the fundamental drivers in order to develop our scenarios for future electricity prices, including fuel price projections, assumptions on plant availabilities, capacity growth in renewables and thermal generation, and projections of demand.
  • Vietnam

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for Vietnam

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  • With demand growth outpacing supply, Vietnam has experienced power shortages in recent years, with persistent narrow reserve margins. New power projects set out in the 7th Power Development Master Plan through 2030 are ambitious but some face development uncertainty, in particular coal power plants. The renewable sector has grown tremendously in a short span of two years, despite rising concerns over grid curtailment and bankability of PPA. These market conditions not only present multiple opportunities for investors, but also challenges in navigating the dynamic market and regulatory conditions.

    If you wish for details on the Vietnamese market report, please contact Matthew Heling (matthew.h@afry.com).
  • United States of America

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections in CAISO

    3 January 2020

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  • The AFRY Independent Market Report provides a comprehensive review of the market background including regulation and stakeholders, historical characteristics and trends. Additionally, renewable energy policy and environmental regulations are discussed alongside the issues these present to the market.

    Wholesale prices for two price areas, SP15 and NP15, are projected until 2040 under three scenarios, which span a range of wholesale electricity price outcomes.
  • United States of America

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections in ERCOT

    3 January 2020

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  • The AFRY Independent Market Report provides a comprehensive review of the market background including regulation and stakeholders, historical characteristics and trends. Wholesale prices for four price areas are projected until 2040 under three scenarios which span a range of wholesale electricity price outcomes.

    Historically dominated by thermal technologies, wind capacity has been growing over the last 15 years to be the third most prevalent technology after gas and coal. Since 2015, wind capacity growth has accelerated with the completion of the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) transmission lines, connecting wind-rich western Texas (in particular in the Panhandle) to demand centres in the South and East. Looking ahead there is a strong pipeline of planned wind projects, which are due to commission in the next few years.
  • United States of America

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections in ISO-NE

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  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for ISO-NE.

    If you wish for details on our ISO-NE modelling and reporting, please contact Tom Williams (tom.williams@afry.com).
  • United States of America

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections in MISO

  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for MISO.

    If you wish for details on our MISO modelling and reporting, please contact Ingolf Dorn (ingolf.dorn@afry.com).
  • United States of America

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections in NYISO

  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for NYISO.

    If you wish for details on our NYISO modelling and reporting, please contact Claire Behrens (claire.behrens@afry.com) or Susannah Grice (susannah.grice@afry.com).
  • United States of America

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections for the PJM Market

    2 July 2020

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  • The AFRY Independent Market Report provides a comprehensive review of the market background including market design, regulation, stakeholders, historical characteristics and trends. We examine the key issues that the market will face in the future. Additionally, renewable incentives and environmental regulations are discussed alongside the issues these present to the market.

    Wholesale prices for five representative price areas (which are groups of PJM control zones) covering the full PJM footprint are projected until 2040 under three scenarios which span a range of wholesale electricity price outcomes and include corresponding analysis of prices in the PJM capacity market. In addition, we model sensitivities (e.g. lower gas prices, and differing subsidy arrangements for generators) which assess futures based on the Central Scenario with changes to a small number of parameters driving market behaviour and prices.
  • United States of America

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections in SPP

  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for SPP.

    If you wish for details on our SPP modelling and reporting, please contact Ingolf Dorn (ingolf.dorn@afry.com).
  • United States of America

    Wholesale Electricity Price Projections in WECC

  • Unfortunately we currently do not have a flyer available for WECC.

    If you wish for details on our WECC modelling and reporting, please contact Charles Merrick (charles.merrick@afry.com).

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