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Wholesale electricity price projections for Austria – 2020 Q1 (test page)

(Downloads from Azure API)

This note summarises our updated commodity and wholesale electricity price projections.

Impact on prices

Below is a summary of the impacts of changes to our wholesale electricity price projections.

High

In the High scenario, the wholesale electricity price increases strongly in the early years, reaching €77/MWh in 2026. Initially, this is mainly driven by a firmer gas price. Thereafter, the power price falls towards 2029, due to a looser capacity margin as a result of the addition of significant renewable capacities. From 2030 onwards, strongly rising carbon costs are only partially offset by a looser capacity margin, pushing the power price higher, especially until the mid-2040s. Afterwards, new CCS Gas and CCGT capacities come online in 2050. Additionally, falling gas and coal costs compensate for upward pressure from firming up carbon costs, causing the power price to soften until 2055 and then remain relatively stable until the end of the period under review. The wholesale electricity price ends at €87/MWh in 2060.

Central

In the Central scenario, the wholesale power price grows moderately in the early years, reaching €55/MWh in 2025. This growth broadly reflects the development of the gas price, which firms up until the mid-2020s and then falls in the long run. A slightly softer power price between 2026 and 2034 is a result of significant additions of more cost-competitive solar and onshore wind generation technologies. After the mid-2030s, it is mainly rising carbon costs that put upward pressure on the electricity price, causing the power price to reach its peak in 2055 at €66/MWh. Thereafter, a falling gas price causes the wholesale electricity price to decrease moderately. The wholesale electricity price ends at €62/MWh in 2060.

Low

In the Low scenario, the wholesale electricity price remains relatively stable until 2022, followed by an uptick in 2023 caused by significant coal and nuclear retirals in Germany. Over the late 2020s, the power price falls moderately, reflecting the development of the gas price, which falls moderately until 2029. Starting from 2030, the growth of carbon and gas costs puts upward pressure on the power prices, as it reaches its peak at €44/MWh in 2055. Towards 2060, the electricity price softens slightly, as new batteries and solar technologies are added to the system in neighbouring countries. The wholesale electricity price ends at €43/MWh in 2060.

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Wholesale electricity prices: These are baseload price projections; please contact us for technology specific capture prices.

In the event of an inconsistency between the data presented in this chart and the main market price projection excel file, the main excel file will prevail.

You can click on the scenario labels to show/hide specific scenarios
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Coal – CIF ARA projections; includinged average national delivery cost to the power station;
Gas – Hub price;
Lignite - Includes average national delivery cost to the power station.


In the event of an inconsistency between the data presented in this chart and the main market price projection excel file, the main excel file will prevail.

You can click on the scenario labels to show/hide specific scenarios
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For most markets this is just the price under the EU ETS; for some markets with additional support (such as Great Britain) this is the effective carbon price i.e. market based mechanism plus top-up.

In the event of an inconsistency between the data presented in this chart and the main market price projection excel file, the main excel file will prevail.

You can click on the scenario labels to show/hide specific scenarios
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Net demand plus transmission losses. This is the demand that has to be met by plants connected to the electricity grid (both transmission and distribution connected), as measured at station gate net basis.

In the event of an inconsistency between the data presented in this chart and the main market price projection excel file, the main excel file will prevail.

You can click on the scenario labels to show/hide specific scenarios
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Installed capacity of all grid-connected generation in country. Plant capacity measured at station gate on a net basis and grouped by technology type.

In the event of an inconsistency between the data presented in this chart and the main market price projection excel file, the main excel file will prevail.

You can click on the scenario labels to show/hide specific scenarios
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Generation of all grid-connected generation in country as measured at station gate on a net basis grouped by the primary technology type.

In the event of an inconsistency between the data presented in this chart and the main market price projection excel file, the main excel file will prevail.

You can click on the scenario labels to show/hide specific scenarios

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